![]() ![]() Nick Martinez wasn’t necessarily much more effective in the bullpen (3.98 xFIP) than in the rotation (4.09 xFIP through June 18) last season, even though his ERA improved significantly (from 4.03 to 2.74).ĭOWNLOAD NOW Cleveland Guardians vs. Kyle Freeland doesn’t have as drastic home/road splits as his teammate German Marquez, but he is certainly more effective (4.70 圎RA at Coors 4.27 Away). I project a slight edge on the Padres‘ F5 moneyline and would look to place that bet at -161 or better. Update: With the total dropping to 7.5, I would look to play the Over at -112 or better (projected 8.1.) Houston is closer to the value side of the moneyline however, I would need odds nearer to -140 in either half to jump in (projected -156 F5, -153 full game). The personnel isn’t entirely the same, but it gives you an idea of the relative potency between the splits.Īll this is to say that I would bet the Under 7.5 to -105 (projected 7.1) and play an F5 Under 4 to -115 (or 4.5 to -150). ![]() Last season, Houston ranked second against lefties but ninth against righties Chicago ranked fourth against lefties but 23rd against righties. Both project better against left-handed pitching than righties. Regardless, both teams are in their lesser offensive split. 258, and his strikeout rate increased from 17% to 23%.” After adding the slider, his wOBA allowed against left-handed batters fell from. Per Jake Mailhot of FanGraphs: “During his career, Lynn has run a pretty pronounced platoon split (nearly 50 points of wOBA). ![]() I’m also high on Lance Lynn for this season after potentially finding a slider to neutralize lefties. Javier carried a 2.43 expected ERA or 圎RA last season, second behind only Spencer Strider (2.39) and well ahead of the rest of the pack, including Clayton Kershaw (2.51), Carlos Rodon (2.64), Justin Verlander (2.66) and Shohei Ohtani (2.68). You already know that I’m high on Cristian Javier, who I talked up for wins leader, strikeout leader and Cy Young bets this offseason. Each found a career peak in 2022 - took a slight step back - and then recovered toward the end: Jesus Luzardo carried a 3.39 圎RA last season in a bounce-back campaign, but some pitching projections expect him to regress closer to 3.9 this season, roughly where I project the Mets‘ David Peterson.īoth pitchers offer a relatively wide range of projection outcomes, but what I like is the performance trend. Additionally, you can bet the F5 Under 4.5 to -130 (projected 3.84). You can bet the Under at current prices (Under 8, -110 at FanDuel) and down to 7.5 (+100). I only show a slight edge on the Marlins (projected -101) at current prices, and I would look to bet the Fish if the market moves to +103 for the first five innings (F5) or +108 for the full game. ![]() The betting market is higher on the Marlins than I gave it credit for. I expected to have multiple moneyline wagers on Miami while building projections for the first two games. I don’t look at any betting lines before modeling these games each day because I like to try to predict which teams or totals I will bet on based on my numbers. Let’s jump into a rare five-game slate for a Friday.Įxpert Picks for Friday, March 31 New York Mets vs. You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page. You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark). Hopefully, you will use it as your morning betting guide to get ahead of the baseball markets. ET after I enter my overnight bets in the Action Network App and update the MLB projections. I will look to release a new version of Opening Pitch daily between midnight and 3 a.m. My goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight my top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis, mainly as I react to opening and overnight lines while using my baseball betting model. Welcome to Opening Pitch, my new column that you’ll find daily throughout the 2023 MLB season. ![]()
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